A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
