Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
